#1 Adley Rutschman. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. In his best season, Joey Votto was still nearly a quarter more likely to swing at an out-of-the-zone pitch than Soto was as a 22-year-old in 2021. They just need to win 62.2% at home and just 48% on the road, the way that they did in 2007 and 2009, in order to be a playoff team. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. Would half their analysis department possess Ph.D.s in physics? They use those projections to calculate how many runs a given team will score and allow over a full season, use that to come up with an expected winning percentage for each team, and then uses that winning percentage and run a Monte Carlo simulation for a full 162 games. You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article. 25. by Retrosheet. While the Guardians seem to be content to let their kids play in 2022, the Tigers went out and acquired a ton of talent to supplement their top prospects who are ready to graduate to the majors: Javier Bez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Meadows, and Tucker Barnhart. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. The Twins surprised everyone when they landed Correa as their starting shortstop. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. The Braves have short-term and long-terms questions in their rotation that are still waiting to be answered. Im inclined to agree that theres probably no way to truly solve the hangover, but I think theres also almost certainly a type of player profile that could be identified who would be less liable to suffer so much on the road. ZiPS misses for teams from year to year are uncorrelated with an r^2 of one years miss to the next of 0.000575. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. These are based upon the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which use a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer and our manually maintained playing time estimates. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDCs 77%. by Handedness. 60% bachata, 20% kizomba, and 20% salsa. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below: Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. So how does it work? The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. Out went Gray, Castellanos, Barnhart, Winker, Surez, Wade Miley and Amir Garrett. That makes it all the more baffling that the Angels havent finished a season above .500 since 2015 and have been to the playoffs just once in the last 12 years. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the leagues pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. While its still taken as an assumption that hell return, the fact is he didnt sign before the 2021 season, he didnt sign during the 2021 season, and he didnt sign before the lockout. The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in a year where anything that could go wrong did. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. Sign up for the Yup! Theres a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally dont have to do again in 2022. Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The exercise continues this offseason. Some may think. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. With some luck, they could get 16 WAR from Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani alone and have enough go right to fall into the divisional race, but its not the most likely outcome. They play half their games in Coors Field and Coors Field is weird, it makes sense to get hitters and pitchers that are adapted to the situation there (just as it makes sense for the Yankees to sign guys who take advantage of the short porch in right, etc.). I doubt theyll enter the season with Ryan Pepiot in the rotation. Probably the most surprising team in these standings is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a cornucopia of players that ZiPS just really likes (Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Ryne Nelson in particular). Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. Similar to the Yankees with Judge, the Astros arent likely to just shrug and stand pat if Justin Verlander doesnt return. Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are both on the wrong side of 35, and the former has already dealt with some minor injuries this spring. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). I expect a busy offseason for the Mariners, with a definite focus on second base and corner outfield, and the Rangers have already been able to retain their best free agent-to-be, Martin Perez, for the 2023 season. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently Trey Mancinis comeback and Cedric Mullins 3030 season being the most recent but theyll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year. Read the rest of this entry . ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. Unlike the last two disappointing seasons, they should have enough talent to succeed without deGrom leading the rotation. The exercise continues this offseason. Like the rest of the teams in this tier, the Royals are just oozing with young talent. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted That makes the Rangers an interesting case study in a team trying to buy its way out of its rebuilding phase before the top prospects are ready to contribute. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. A full year of Byron Buxton would be a huge boost, and the Twins have got plenty of supplemental talent in the lineup in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel San. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. ), Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. The five teams in this tier have a really wide range of possible outcomes based on a variety of factors. The loss of Correa at shortstop looms large. Just need to make it a full 6. Their presence should give fans in Arizona something to be optimistic about, even as the current roster flounders. Eliminating the gap is a fools errand. I cant say Im displeased to see Luis Uras at the top of the batter list Ive long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year but Id definitely be uneasy about having him as my teams best player. These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. Daimon Latino Nights is open every Wednesday from 8 PM to 2 AM. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. Dropping $125M on JRam doesnt seem to square with your assessment. These projected standings do take the strength of schedule into consideration, which will be a bit more uniform now that the league has rebalanced the schedule. The methodology Im using here is the same one I use in the regular season, and as such, it isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. Whether the anti-service time manipulation rules in the new CBA influenced many teams to carry their top prospects on their Opening Day rosters is up for debate. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. Thats the straight-up, pure, 100% unadulterated Ted Williams comp, too. Even being average for 2 months wouldve kept us in it. The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways. I do think some of this projection is because Yoan Moncada was a mess but I dont think he will be that bad again. The 2022-23 Premier League fixtures. So where do they see the Braves for the 2022 season? The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Read the rest of this entry . Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. They did sign Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly during the offseason, but without Kimbrel or Crochet, the relief corps just isnt as deep as it could have been. Can the Braves win the World Series again? The departures of Mark Canha and Starling Marte are a real setback for Oakland, but the lineups core remains intact. The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. Both models also assign less than a 2% chance to the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Pirates making the playoffs. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Read the rest of this entry . But the offense is thoroughly uninspiring wherever you look. Completely bonkers if the payroll stays there, but since it ranged from $136M-$157M from 2017-2019 Id say its a safe bet to increase. I remain on the record that I think the Tigers are better than ZiPS thinks, and its nice to see that Detroit isnt going to play games with Spencer Torkelsons playing time. You can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. Thats not to say their offseason was a failure. Even though the projections dont see it, is there any doubt that their pitching staff will be one of the best run prevention units in all of baseball? Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. And do note that the numbers coming out of cleveland are above and beyond raises and extensions. The NHL has passed the mathematical midpoint of the 2022-23 regular season. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. 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